The intensifying conflict between China and the Philippines over territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea, part of the broader South China Sea dispute, has far-reaching implications not only for the two countries but also for global maritime trade and regional stability.

Historical Context of the Dispute

The West Philippine Sea is the Philippine government’s designation for areas in the South China Sea that fall within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These waters are rich in natural resources, including fisheries and oil and gas reserves, making them highly contested. China’s sweeping claim over nearly the entire South China Sea, marked by its so-called “nine-dash line,” overlaps significantly with the Philippines’ EEZ.

This dispute has existed for decades, but tensions escalated following the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The court invalidated China’s expansive claims, siding with the Philippines. Despite the ruling, China has continued to assert its dominance, constructing artificial islands, deploying naval forces, and conducting maritime activities in the area.

Recent Developments

In 2024, confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have grown increasingly frequent and confrontational. In November, a Philippine coast guard ship collided with a Chinese vessel during an operation to deliver supplies to a contested shoal, reigniting tensions. Beijing blamed the Philippines, accusing it of provocation, while Manila called out China’s “bullying tactics.” This incident highlighted the fragile nature of the maritime standoff.

The West Philippine Sea’s strategic importance cannot be understated—it serves as a vital shipping route for global trade. Escalations in this area have implications for freedom of navigation, affecting not only the littoral states but also global players with vested economic interests.

Economic Impact

The South China Sea, encompassing the West Philippine Sea, is one of the world’s most significant maritime corridors. An estimated $3.4 trillion worth of goods pass through these waters annually. For the Philippines, the dispute affects its fisheries sector, energy security, and broader economic development.

• Fisheries: The West Philippine Sea provides livelihoods for thousands of Filipino fishermen. However, Chinese incursions have led to reduced access to traditional fishing grounds, resulting in economic hardships for coastal communities.
• Energy Exploration: The Philippines has sought to explore oil and gas reserves in the region. However, intimidation by Chinese naval forces has stalled several projects, depriving the Philippines of a critical energy source.
• Tourism and Investment: Prolonged tensions deter foreign investments in affected areas, stifling local economies dependent on tourism and infrastructure development.

For China, asserting control over the South China Sea is a cornerstone of its Belt and Road Initiative, enabling secure trade routes and energy supplies. The resulting stand-off leaves smaller nations, including the Philippines, vulnerable to coercive tactics.

Geopolitical Ramifications

The West Philippine Sea conflict has become a flashpoint in Southeast Asia, drawing the attention of global powers like the United States and its allies. Washington, bound by its Mutual Defence Treaty with Manila, has reaffirmed its commitment to defend Philippine vessels in the event of armed aggression.

• US-China Rivalry: The United States frequently conducts freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea to challenge China’s excessive claims. These actions underscore the strategic importance of maintaining open sea lanes for commerce and military purposes.
• Regional Alliances: ASEAN countries are increasingly divided on how to address the South China Sea issue. Some, like Vietnam, support stronger measures against China, while others prioritise economic ties over geopolitical disputes.

The Philippines has also sought to strengthen its defence partnerships, signing new security agreements with nations like Japan and Australia. These moves reflect Manila’s growing determination to counterbalance China’s influence.

Environmental Impact

Beyond the geopolitical and economic aspects, the conflict takes a toll on the environment. China’s reclamation projects and the construction of artificial islands have destroyed coral reefs and disrupted marine ecosystems in the South China Sea. This ecological damage undermines biodiversity and threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities.

Steps Toward Resolution

Despite the seemingly intractable nature of the dispute, there are avenues for de-escalation:

1. Diplomacy: Multilateral forums, such as ASEAN and the United Nations, can play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue between China and the Philippines.

2. Legal Frameworks: Enforcing the 2016 arbitration ruling remains a priority for the Philippines and its allies.

3. Environmental Cooperation: Joint efforts to protect marine biodiversity could serve as a confidence-building measure.

However, these efforts require political will and mutual respect for international law, both of which are currently in short supply.

Conclusion

The conflict over the West Philippine Sea remains a focal point of regional and global geopolitics. With the South China Sea serving as a lifeline for international trade and a hotspot for resource competition, the stakes are higher than ever. How this conflict evolves will have profound implications not only for the Philippines and China but also for the broader global community. Finding a peaceful resolution, grounded in mutual respect and international law, is imperative to ensure stability and prosperity in the region.

About Maritime Fairtrade

Maritime Fairtrade is your trusted source for real-time news and in-depth analysis of the maritime industry, with a sharp focus on the dynamic Asian market. Our maritime guide in Singapore keeps you updated on the latest regulatory changes and offers detailed reports on the trends shaping global shipping and trade.

We provide maritime professionals with expert commentary, strategic insights, and actionable recommendations to navigate industry challenges. Whether you’re adapting to new trade dynamics or staying ahead of regulatory shifts, our comprehensive resources ensure you’re informed and prepared.

Based in Singapore, we also offer accessible shipping courses, designed to empower both seasoned professionals and newcomers with the knowledge and skills needed to excel in the maritime sector.