DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 reveals a significant trend in the maritime industry: the number of vessels capable of using alternative fuels is projected to nearly double by 2028. By 2030, this fleet is expected to consume up to 50 million tonnes of low-greenhouse gas (GHG) fuels annually, effectively doubling the volume necessary to meet the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2030 emissions targets. However, the current actual use of low-GHG fuels stands at only 1 million tonnes, emphasizing a critical disparity between fleet capacity and actual fuel consumption.
Eirik Ovrum, the report’s lead author, notes that while substantial technical progress has been made recently, solutions remain fragmented and isolated. To achieve meaningful impacts on emissions reduction, these innovations must be integrated into fleet strategies and supported by adequate infrastructure and compliance frameworks.
The report details advancements specific to various fuel types. There are currently 1,539 vessels that operate on bio-LNG or e-LNG, in stark contrast to only three vessels that can use blue ammonia or e-ammonia. Biodiesel production globally is around 20 million tonnes, while bio-methanol/e-methanol production is a mere 1 million tonnes. In terms of infrastructure, there are already 106 bunkering facilities for bio-LNG and e-LNG, yet only one exists for ammonia, highlighting significant gaps that need bridging.
Several strategies are proposed to align fleet readiness with fuel availability. Leveraging existing infrastructure for established low-GHG fuels like biodiesel and bio-LNG is one solution. The variability in establishing bunkering and distribution infrastructure costs is influenced by the adopted regulations regarding different GHG-intensity fuels and their reusability.
The adoption of flexible chain of custody models can also mitigate gaps. These models help trace and verify the sustainability of low-GHG fuels throughout the supply chain. For instance, if a mass balance chain of custody model is applied, infrastructure for fossil LNG can be utilized for bio-LNG/bio-methane, significantly reducing energy consumption and minimizing emissions and costs. In fact, leveraging enhanced flexibility, such as the book-and-claim model, could yield even greater energy savings and sustainability.
Shipowners require solid data to form effective and economically viable emissions-compliance strategies. DNV provides case studies, including those of an 18,000 DWT chemical tanker, to highlight the implications of impending IMO zero-emission regulations expected to be approved in October. These models explore essential mechanisms, such as purchasing remedial units and using low-GHG fuels to manage compliance effectively.
In summary, DNV’s analysis underscores the maritime industry’s progress toward alternative fuels while concurrently highlighting the critical infrastructure challenges that must be addressed to make this transition successful. The next steps involve integrating solutions, enhancing supply chains, and fostering compliance to enable a sustainable maritime future.
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