Indonesia undertakes balancing act in bilateral ties with China

Under the new administration of new president Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia is trying to achieve a delicate balancing act with regard to its bilateral ties with China. Prabowo has pledged to bolster the defense of Indonesian territory but at the same time, is mindful that China is Indonesia’s key economic and trading partner.

China claims almost the entirety of South China Sea despite an international ruling invalidating those claims. The North Natuna Sea, at the southern edge of the South China Sea, is located within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but China says it is within its jurisdiction.

In two incidents on October 21 and 23, 2024, Indonesia said it had chased away a Chinese coast guard vessel at the North Natuna Sea. Although Chinese coast guard vessels were spotted numerous times over the years in the North Natuna Sea, these latest incidents happened after Prabowo took over on October 20, which might not be a coincidence but a test by China to see how the new president would react.

On October 23, Bakamla, Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency, posted a video on Youtube stating it had expelled China Coast Guard vessel 5402. The following day, Bakamla said in a statement the vessel had disturbed the activities of a survey by state-owned oil company Pertamina.

This public display of transparency of China’s action and Indonesia’s responses is taken from the playbook of the Philippines, which in recent years have had numerous confrontations with China in the disputed South China Sea, and which have always published its encounters.

On November 9, 2024, in a state visit to China, after the signing of a MoU to jointly develop maritime resources near the Natuna Islands, Prabowo allegedly in an official statement, recognized China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim to almost all of the South China Sea, including part of Indonesia’s EEZ. This statement appeared to undermine Indonesia’s ability to assert sovereignty and territorial jurisdiction in its own EEZ.

In the past, Indonesia did not recognize China’s “nine-dash line” and did not acknowledge China’s competing claim. Indonesia considered itself a non-claimant in sovereignty disputes with China, and had taken the position that there was nothing to discuss since China’s claims have no basis in international law.

However, now that Prabowo seemed to have accepted the premise of overlapping claims and that China has legitimate territorial claims in the North Natuna Sea, this would signal a major shift in policy. Nonetheless, the MoU nor the statement has any legal obligations.

Be that as it may, Prabowo might be trying to keep tensions low to extract economic incentives from China to spur the growth of the domestic economy, while also attempting to safeguard sovereignty. During the state visit at the Indonesia-China Business Forum, US$10 billion worth of deals were signed, signaling a desire on Indonesia’s part to build even stronger economic relations with China.

Photo credit: iStock/ User3a14f790_939

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