Indonesia’s e-commerce market to surpass US$46 billion in 2025, forecasts analyst

Indonesia’s e-commerce market is witnessing rapid growth, driven by rising internet penetration, smartphone usage, and a growing middle class. Online shopping festivals, payment innovations, and mobile wallet adoption are fueling consumer demand. Government efforts to boost digital infrastructure and transaction security are further accelerating the shift. 

Against this backdrop, the market is projected to reach IDR738.2 trillion (US$46.6 billion) in 2025, forecasts GlobalData, a data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s e-commerce analytics reveals that the e-commerce transaction value in Indonesia has shown a steady increase, with the market size growing from IDR288.5 trillion ($18.2 billion) in 2020 to IDR646.2 trillion ($40.8 billion) in 2024, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3%.

Sidharth Das, banking and payments analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Due to the rise of online retailers and payment systems, a growing middle class, and rising internet population, Indonesia’s e-commerce business is expanding substantially. Online shopping festivals such as National Online Shopping Day (Harbolnas) have also contributed to the overall growth of e-commerce in Indonesia.”

Government initiatives to enhance digital infrastructure and security of online transactions are also playing a crucial role in this growth. In September 2023, Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade banned social media e-commerce transactions to safeguard traditional businesses and online marketplaces as well as reduce online fraud, thereby bolstering consumer confidence.

Additionally, innovations in payment technologies and the proliferation of mobile wallets have further fueled the expansion of e-commerce. For instance, in September 2024, Shopee and YouTube launched an online shopping service in Indonesia that allows customers to buy products they see on YouTube by clicking on links to Shopee.

GlobalData’s 2024 Financial Services Consumer Survey (carried out in Q2 2024; approximately 67,292 respondents aged 18+ were surveyed across 41 countries) reveals that alternative payment methods dominate the e-commerce payment landscape in Indonesia, with a market share of 49.3% in 2024. The popularity of these tools can be attributed to their convenience, speed, and security.

Mobile wallets, such as GoPay and DANA, have gained significant traction among the consumers, offering seamless e-commerce payment and providing attractive cashback and discount offers. By July 2024, the GoPay app downloads reached 30 million.

Bank transfers held a 30.2% market share in Indonesia’s e-commerce transaction value in 2024. This can be attributed to the trust and reliability associated with traditional banking systems. Many consumers prefer bank transfers for high-value transactions due to the perceived security and direct nature of the payment process.

Cards accounted for a 7.5% share of e-commerce transaction value in 2024. Credit cards are more preferred than debit cards due to the value-added benefits they offer, including interest free instalment payment options, reward programs, cashback, and discounts.

Cash, once a dominant payment method, has seen a decline in its market share in the e-commerce sector, driven by the growing preference for digital payment methods.

Das concludes: “Looking ahead, Indonesia’s e-commerce market value is projected to reach IDR1,159.8 trillion ($73.2 billion) in 2029. This represents a CAGR of 12.0% from 2025 to 2029. 

“The growth will be driven by several key trends, including the continued expansion of digital payment solutions, the increasing penetration of smartphones and internet connectivity, and the rising demand for convenient and secure online shopping experiences.”

Photo credit: iStock/ Phira Phonruewiangphing

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