Japan is facing an unprecedented threat to its national interests, given heightened geopolitical tensions with China, Russia and North Korea, as the world enters a new era of confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism. Given these risks, Japan seeks to double defense spending to two percent of GDP by 2027 to include strike capability, and turning the page on the post-World War 2 principle of limiting the country’s military budget to self-defense only.
China, Russia and North Korea are ruled by dictators and they are believed to be aligning themselves against democratic countries, specifically the U.S. and its allies, and are bent on upending the rules-based world order.
North Korea does not shy away from using nuclear threats and belligerent rhetoric to threaten Japan, backed by the ability to attack with nuclear weapons fitted to ballistic missiles. Be that as it may, North Korea’s threats went beyond just mere words.
In a seminal event on December 22, 2001, a North Korean spy ship, disguised as a fishing vessel, was found in the waters southwest of Kyushu. The spy ship refused to obey the order of the Japan Coast Guard to stop and began fleeing. Japanese coast guard vessels gave chase but was fired upon by automatic rifles by the spy ship, wounding three officers onboard the Amami vessel. What followed was a firefight but, in the end, sensing that it was outpowered, and rather than risking capture, the spy ship blew itself up in an apparent suicide.
In the aftermath, the spy ship was found to carry a small boat, underwater scooter and diving equipment to facilitate the illegal entry and exit of secret agents. Additionally, the evidence recovered strongly suggested that the spy ship was also used to transport and deliver stimulant drugs. To date, the Japan Coast Guard has confirmed 21 instances of spy ships intruding national waters since 1963, and all of them took place in the Sea of Japan and in the waters surrounding Kyushu.
The spy ship at the Japan Coast Guard Museum Yokohama. Photo credit: Lee Kok Leong
In the current situation, as North Korea ramps up the frequency of its missile tests in the waters surrounding Japan, China is regularly sending naval ships to the disputed Senkaku Islands, and conducting maritime patrols and exercises with Russia, raising significant alarm in and posing unparalleled strategic challenge to Japan.
In a latest incident on April 12, the tenth such instance this year, the Japan Coast Guard has asked four Chinese coast guard vessels to leave the waters of Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands. China claims that the islands have been a part of Chinese territory since at least 1534.
In an act of joint patrol, on August 17, 2023, six Chinese and five Russian warships sailed between Japan’s Okinawa Island and Miyako Island before moving toward the East China Sea. According to the Japanese defense ministry, the 11 warships, among them missile destroyers and anti-submarine ships, were part of a Chinese-Russian contingent that took part in a joint naval exercise in July in the Sea of Japan.
In recent years, China and Russia have repeatedly conducted joint naval and aerial exercises near Japan, and the Japanese defense ministry believed that these were “clearly intended as a show of force against Japan” and are of “grave concern” to national security. The two countries have grown closer since Russia invaded Ukraine.
China and Russia declared a “no limits” friendship just days before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 2022, and started the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two, which is still currently ongoing. In March 2023, China and Russia signed a declaration expressing their willingness to conduct regular joint patrols to deepen mutual trust.
According to the South Korean defense minister on February 26, 2024, North Korea has sent about 6,700 containers carrying millions of munitions to Russia since July 2023 to support its war against Ukraine, in exchange for food as well as parts and raw materials for weapons manufacturing. The containers might carry more than three million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds.
In September, 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to Russia for a summit with President Vladimir Putin and held talks on military cooperation and possible Russian help for Pyongyang’s satellite program.
In 2023, the Japanese government approved a plan to increase defense spending to two percent of GDP by 2027, to around 11 trillion yen (US$78.7 billion) each year. For decades, Japan has capped military spending at around one percent of GDP. Japan will also loosen arms export controls for the first time in nearly a decade.
China’s announced national defense budget first exceeded Japan’s defense-related expenditures in 1998 and has since increased at a rapid pace, reaching approximately 4.8 times of Japan’s defense-related expenditure in 2022. Be that as it may, this announced budget may just be a small portion of actual expenditures spent for military purposes, as official statistics are notoriously unreliable and inaccurate.
As Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine attested, the international democratic community of which Japan is a member, is facing serious challenges and has plunged into a new crisis. China is continuing its unilateral changes to the status quo by the strength of its military and economic powers in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. North Korea is escalating military activities as it launches ballistic missiles at an unprecedented high frequency and pursues further improvement of its nuclear weapons.
Given the simmering geopolitical tensions, and the provocations presented by the trilateral alliance of China, Russia and North Korea, Japan cannot rule out the possibility of future serious military events that might shake the foundation of the stable post-war international order in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in East Asia. Therefore, it is indeed timely Japan has given recognition to the risks involved and has taken appropriate actions to mitigate the situation.
Photo credit: Lee Liang Ying. Japan Coast Guard Museum Yokohama.
