The South China Sea, a critical maritime corridor brimming with resources and strategic significance, has become a theater of escalating tension and territorial disputes.
At the center of this struggle is China’s aggressive campaign to enforce its expansive “nine-dash line” claim, disregarding international law and threatening the sovereignty of neighboring nations, including the Philippines.
For Manila, this is not merely a geopolitical concern but an existential crisis affecting its sovereignty, resources, and national security.
China’s actions have profoundly destabilized the South China Sea, and their consequences for the Philippines are dire.
Through the construction of militarized artificial islands and the deployment of a formidable navy and militia, Beijing has transformed the region into a flashpoint for potential conflict. Since 2014, China has built over 3,200 acres of artificial islands in the Spratly Islands, many of which now house missile systems, radar installations, and airstrips capable of hosting fighter jets.
These militarized outposts are alarmingly close to Philippine territory, particularly Mischief Reef, which lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Economic and environmental devastation
The Philippines faces severe economic repercussions as a result of China’s actions. Reed Bank, located within the Philippine EEZ, is estimated to hold 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Yet, these valuable resources remain untapped due to Chinese interference and the intimidation of Filipino vessels. Additionally, fishing, a cornerstone of the Philippine economy and livelihood for millions of Filipinos, is under siege.
Harassment by Chinese Coast Guard and militia vessels has forced many Filipino fishermen to abandon their ancestral fishing grounds, incurring annual losses estimated at US$1.3 billion.
The environmental toll is equally alarming. China’s dredging and reclamation projects have destroyed over 120 square kilometers of coral reefs, severely impacting marine ecosystems vital to Southeast Asia.
The United Nations has repeatedly warned of the long-term ecological damage, yet Beijing continues its operations unchecked, further endangering regional biodiversity and food security.
Human costs: Intimidation and harassment
The human dimension of China’s aggression is often overlooked but deeply troubling. Filipino fishers face daily risks as they venture into contested waters.
The June 2019 ramming of the Philippine fishing boat Gem-Ver near Reed Bank, leaving 22 Filipino fishermen stranded, is one of many incidents that highlight the dangers.
More recently, in June 2024, Seaman First Class Jeffrey Facundo of the Philippine Navy lost his thumb during a collision with a Chinese vessel while on a resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal. These incidents underscore the human cost of China’s aggression, with Filipino lives and livelihoods increasingly at stake.
China’s actions blatantly disregard the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which invalidated its sweeping claims in the South China Sea.
Despite this legal victory for the Philippines, Beijing has continued to enforce its claims, undermining international law and norms. The Philippines’ maritime stability is further jeopardized by China’s refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the ruling, leaving Manila to fend off one of the world’s most powerful nations largely on its own.
Lopsided security landscape
The disparity in military capabilities between the Philippines and China is stark. While the Philippine Navy operates with only two frigates and a limited number of patrol vessels, China’s navy boasts 355 warships, many deployed in the South China Sea.
This imbalance highlights the risks of accidental clashes, such as the November 2023 collision during a supply mission to the Ayungin Shoal. The Philippines is left vulnerable, with limited resources to assert its maritime rights or counter China’s provocations effectively.
Multifaceted strategy for resilience
To safeguard its maritime stability, the Philippines must adopt a comprehensive approach that integrates diplomacy, defense, and transparency.
Strengthening alliances is paramount. The 2023 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States, which provides access to additional Philippine bases, is a critical step in enhancing the country’s defensive posture.
Manila must also deepen its partnerships with other nations such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea, whose interests align in preserving freedom of navigation and upholding the rules-based international order.
On the legal and diplomatic front, the Philippines should intensify efforts to rally international support by leveraging its 2016 arbitral victory.
Manila’s transparency initiative, which exposes China’s aggressive actions, has already drawn attention from nations like France, Canada, and India, strengthening its network of allies. By building a coalition committed to upholding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Philippines can send a strong message to Beijing that its actions have global consequences.
Investing in defense modernization is equally critical. The Philippine government’s Comprehensive Archipelago Defense Concept, coupled with plans to acquire additional naval assets such as corvettes and patrol vessels, is a step in the right direction.
However, more robust investments in surveillance, coastal defense systems, and naval capabilities are urgently needed to assert control over the country’s EEZ and deter future provocations.
Challenges in 2025 and beyond
As the Philippines enters 2025, it faces the dual challenge of defending its maritime domain while ensuring internal political stability during national elections. Beijing’s influence operations, including potential support for pro-China candidates and disinformation campaigns, pose a significant threat to the country’s sovereignty.
China may also escalate its aggression in disputed areas like Escoda Shoal, Rozul Reef, and Bajo de Masinloc, shifting focus from previously de-escalated zones such as Ayungin Shoal.
Maritime experts warn that China’s coercive tactics will likely intensify, aiming to divide Filipinos and pressure the Philippine government into concessions. The May 2025 elections will serve as a litmus test for Manila’s resolve to uphold its maritime rights amidst these external pressures.
Why the South China Sea matters
The South China Sea is not just a regional issue but a global concern. As a vital waterway through which one-third of the world’s trade passes, its stability is essential for global commerce.
For the European Union, over 40 percent of trade transits this route, making the South China Sea integral to its economic security. Instability in the region risks disrupting global supply chains, driving up shipping costs, and triggering acute product shortages.
Moreover, any escalation involving China and the United States could have catastrophic consequences, underscoring the need for a united international response to uphold the rules-based order in the region.
Defining moment for Philippine sovereignty
The Philippines stands at a critical juncture. Its ability to defend its waters against a global superpower will determine not only its maritime sovereignty but also its future as a nation. While the challenges are immense, the Philippines has shown resilience in rallying allies, enacting laws like the Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act and enhancing transparency around China’s actions.
The road ahead demands bold leadership, sustained vigilance, and a commitment to multilateralism. The Philippines must continue to assert its rightful place in the South China Sea, backed by the moral and legal weight of international law. The stakes could not be higher.
What is at risk is not only the country’s sovereignty but also its identity as a maritime nation and its role in a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific. The time to act is now — because inaction will only embolden further aggression. The world is watching.
Photo credit: iStock/ Dan-Manila
