China has both the military might and political will to insist on sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, which is rich in fishing stocks, oil and gas, and is also a key global trade route. The South China Sea holds immense importance for China due to its economic, strategic, and geopolitical significance, where an estimated US$3.4 trillion worth of international shipping trade passes through each year.  

In 2016, China rejected an international arbitration ruling which stated it has no legal basis for the expansive claims. China refuses to accept this 2016 UNCLOS ruling, of which it is a State Party to UNCLOS, and dismissed the ruling as “nothing more than a piece of waste paper”.

China’s supreme leader Xi Jinping’s refusal to acknowledge and accept the 2016 ruling was a direct challenge to a rules-based order, and was another strong sign that he has no qualms about going up against anyone if it suits his political agenda.  

This snub was a dangerous precedent as Xi has shown that UNCLOS’ conflict management and dispute settlement mechanisms are not working with authoritarian regimes and this will have wide-ranging implications for the world.

Over the years, the Chinese Navy (also known as the People’s Liberation Army Navy) has grown from scratch into a strategic force consisting of five services, armed with both nuclear and conventional weapons. 

According to the U.S. Department of Defense, China has numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants. 

In recent months, there were numerous confrontations between China and the Philippines, primarily at the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. Notably, Chinese ships were using water cannons against Filipino boats. 

The Communist Party of China (CCP), the power center that controls everything, is destabilizing the region and jeopardizing the prosperity bring forth by maritime trade. China is using a whole-of-government approach, leveraging government, military, economic, diplomatic and propaganda, to challenge the well-tested and beneficial international order, and gain an effective control of the South China Sea. 

When Xi came to power in 2011, one of his first acts was orchestrated the takeover of Scarborough Shoal between April and June 2012.  Former Filipino president Benigno Aquino traveled to the U.S. to personally request the support of President Barack Obama, but in that era of China appeasement, he received no outright support.  

Sensing a window of opportunity, Xi seized the sovereign rights of Scarborough Shoal from a U.S. treaty ally.  Obama’s acquiescence of China’s seizure, a significant political event that exposed the downward spiral of U.S.’ influence in Asia, was a turning point in the changing regional geopolitical landscape and it gave rise to Xi’s policy of expansionism in South China Sea.  The rest of the Southeast Asian countries took note of Obama’s weakness, pivoted to and built stronger ties with China.  

On September 25, 2015, Xi stood with Obama in the White House Rose Garden, and in front of an international audience, lied through his teeth.  Xi promised there would be no militarization in the South China Sea. 

However, in the years since, he has actively approved island-building and naval base-construction activities, as well as used maritime forces including a fishing militia to assert China’s unlawful Nine-Dash Line claim to almost the whole of South China Sea.  

During the presidency of former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte, from 2016 to 2022, China was emboldened to further assert its pugilism and sovereignty claims in waters disputed by Manila. Duterte’s accommodative policies towards China have been the fodder for many of his critics for being weak on asserting Filipino interests and squandering opportunities for the Philippines following the 2016 international court ruling. 

Duterte pivoted to China and lessened the country’s dependence on its traditional ally, the U.S. He adopted a conciliatory stance compared to his predecessor, and set aside the previous administration’s confrontational policy of asserting the Philippines’ claims over the South China Sea. He also limited U.S. visiting troops in the country. 

It was precisely because the Philippines adopted a clientele approach towards China, that the Communist Party of China’s persistent sovereignty claims and military assertiveness in the contested waters were made even more evident, notwithstanding Filipino accommodations and restraint during the Duterte era.

CCP’s gray zone operations 

Utilizing an integrated and multidimensional strategy, including gray zone operations, for example, employing incremental actions, none of which by itself will cause a military confrontation, to gradually change the status quo in China’s favor.  And facing no meaningful resistance from other claimants, Xi has succeed in conquering the South China Sea.  

Xi’s large-scale island-building and base-construction activities reportedly began around December 2013.  China has gradually expanded its control and influence by increasing the size of existing islands, creating new artificial islands, piling sand onto existing reefs, and constructing ports, military installations and airstrips.  

China has also deployed fighter jets, cruise missiles and a radar system.  Additionally, China has sent armed fishing militia to patrol disputed waters and to chase away local fishermen.  

To give the gray zone operations a cloak of legitimacy and to normalize its belligerent actions, China enacted two new maritime laws in 2021, firstly to require all foreign vessels in disputed waters to report sensitive information such as name, call sign, current position, destination and cargo, and secondly, to explicitly authorize the Chinese Coast Guard to fire on foreign vessels.

In a show of force against anyone who dares to stand up to Xi, on November 23, 2016, Hong Kong customs authorities impounded nine of Singapore’s army Terrex infantry carrier vehicles and other military equipment from a ship docked at the container terminal while it was in transit from Kaohsiung, Taiwan to Singapore.  Xi wanted to make an example out of Singapore because Singapore has voiced support for a rules-based order in the South China Sea disputes.

A region of geopolitical and economic importance

The South China Sea is a region of immense geopolitical and economic importance, and for China, in particular, it holds significant strategic value. 

Stretching over 1.35 million square miles and bordered by multiple countries including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, the South China Sea serves as a critical maritime thoroughfare, hosting a significant portion of the world’s trade and energy resources. Control over this area has been a key point of contention among these countries, with China’s assertive claims and actions in the region drawing international attention and concern.

From China’s perspective, there are several reasons why the South China Sea holds such paramount importance. Firstly, it is a vital maritime corridor through which a substantial amount of China’s trade passes. As the world’s largest trading nation, with a heavy reliance on seaborne trade, ensuring safe and unhindered passage through these waters is crucial for China’s economic prosperity. 

The South China Sea serves as a crucial route for Chinese exports and imports, connecting China with markets in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and beyond. Any disruption to this flow of trade could have severe implications for China’s economy.

Secondly, the region is rich in natural resources, including fish stocks, oil, and natural gas reserves. These resources are essential for China’s growing energy needs and economic development. 

The fish stock in the region is a major source of livelihood for many Chinese fishermen, while the oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed represent valuable assets for China’s energy security. By asserting its claims, China seeks to secure access to these vital resources to meet its domestic demands and reduce its dependency on foreign sources.

Furthermore, having sovereign control carries significant strategic and security implications for China. The region is a key part of China’s maritime defense strategy, providing a buffer zone between China’s mainland and potential adversaries. 

By establishing a strong presence, China aims to enhance its maritime defense capabilities and project power beyond its immediate coastal waters. Having sovereignty also allows China to monitor and control maritime activities in the region, safeguarding its national interests and ensuring that it has a say in regional security affairs.

Additionally, the region holds symbolic importance for China as a manifestation of its historical claims and regional influence. China has long asserted its historical rights over the South China Sea, citing ancient maps and records to support its claims. 

By asserting sovereignty over the region, China seeks to reaffirm its historical position as a regional power and a dominant force in Asia. Control over the South China Sea is seen as a matter of national pride and prestige for China, reflecting its status as a rising global power.

Might is right

In recent decades, due in large part to the cascading effect of maritime trade through the Sea China Sea, Southeast Asian countries have undergone exceptional economic progress, have seen millions of citizens entered the middle-class rank and the region has become an important engine of global economic growth.  

The South China Sea is also an important maritime route through which East Asian countries rely heavily for the flow of oil and gas, including 80 percent of crude oil flowing to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In addition, the waterway contains potentially significant oil and gas exploration areas.  

However, today, Southeast Asian countries and all other countries that depend on the South China Sea for maritime trade face unprecedented challenges from China to their sovereignty, prosperity and peace.  

There is a growing tug of war between free trade and a repressive future of maritime trade where might is right and where authoritarian leaders can and will dictate whatever laws that suit their purposes, at the expense of other countries’ sovereignty.

The failure of Southeast Asian and CCP officials to resolve territorial disputes till now after many years highlighted the fact that dialogues and legal mechanisms do not work with Xi.  Xi’s policies are an obstacle to the unimpeded flow of commerce.

Therefore, all stakeholders who wish to continue to prosper via maritime trade have a shared responsibility to uphold freedom of the seas and a rules-based order which underpin a free and open South China Sea.  

Stakeholders will have to do more to stand up to China’s illegal Nine-Dash Line claim and ensure that the is one of freedom and openness.  If not, there is a very real danger that Xi will turn the South China Sea into China’s internal sea.

Photo credit: iStock/ Dragon Claws