Myanmar’s geographical position ties it to South and Southeast Asia and vital maritime shipping routes connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A central element of its national development strategy is to enhance and integrate its transport system to evolve into a significant maritime hub in Asia. Following recent political and economic reforms, Myanmar’s trade dynamics have shifted dramatically; total trade surged from under US$5 billion annually during 2004-2010 to US$29 billion in 2014-2015, with over 85% of this trade conducted via maritime channels. Thus, securing Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) is essential for Myanmar’s economic prospects, though internal stability challenges limit its national security focus on maritime issues.
Internal conflicts, particularly with armed ethnic groups and instability in Rakhine State, hinder Myanmar’s ability to prioritize maritime security. Consequently, Myanmar is likely to depend on neighboring India for regional maritime security, as it navigates these internal challenges.
To bolster its maritime security capabilities, Myanmar has modernized its navy since 2008, blending domestic manufacturing with foreign acquisitions, particularly from China. This effort involves developing a range of naval vessels and even contemplating submarine acquisitions, aiming to transition into a blue-water navy capable of addressing both state and non-traditional threats. Traditional security concerns, especially regarding sovereignty and territorial integrity, have historically driven this naval enhancement. A prior maritime dispute with Bangladesh heightened these security anxieties but was resolved amicably through international arbitration.
However, ongoing border tensions persist, leading to a buildup of land forces and naval posturing between Myanmar and Bangladesh. While Myanmar’s naval capabilities match Bangladesh’s, developments in the latter’s submarine capabilities have intensified Myanmar’s modernization pursuits, though overall naval modernization remains secondary to army needs.
Amid domestic upheaval, Myanmar faces significant non-traditional maritime security issues, such as maritime asylum seekers and arms smuggling. The humanitarian crisis stemming from Rakhine has resulted in numerous asylum seekers fleeing via the Bay of Bengal, creating security challenges regarding human trafficking. Additionally, the porous border with Bangladesh is exploited by arms smugglers, exacerbating security risks linked to the burgeoning influence of Islamic terror groups like ISIS in the region.
Myanmar’s approach to maritime security relies largely on bilateral discussions, although it engages in multilateral initiatives through ASEAN frameworks such as BIMSTEC and MILAN naval exercises. This outreach aligns with Myanmar’s aim to be recognized as a responsible regional player, drawing interest from powers like India and China. India’s focus on maritime ties is underscored by its security interests in the Bay of Bengal, particularly regarding the Rohingya crisis and the activities of insurgents. India and Myanmar have established numerous agreements, including on maritime cooperation.
Conversely, China’s investments in Myanmar’s maritime infrastructure reflect its strategic interests. China’s CITIC Group, for instance, proposed major investment in a port in Rakhine, signaling its commitment to enhancing Myanmar’s maritime capabilities.
Despite Myanmar’s strategic importance to regional powers, ongoing internal instability may jeopardize its maritime security collaborations with ASEAN partners. While recent ASEAN meetings have failed to yield concrete actions regarding the Rohingya crisis, Myanmar continues to participate in regional security exercises, indicating a degree of resilience against international criticism.
In contrast, Western nations have reacted more critically, suspending training programs and military collaboration due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis. These developments may heighten Myanmar’s apprehensions regarding potential foreign intervention, shaping its maritime strategy amidst rising external pressures. With these multifaceted dynamics, Myanmar’s future maritime security landscape is closely intertwined with regional stability and diplomatic relations.
