In a recent address, Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian addressed escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan, particularly in response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. He asserted that China has sought peaceful unification with Taiwan for decades but has been provoked by the U.S. and its allies, accusing them of violating commitments to the One China policy. Xiao ominously noted that China is prepared to use “all necessary means” to protect its sovereignty, emphasizing a firm stance against Taiwan’s separation.
His remarks signal a potential inevitability of Taiwan’s annexation, a concern echoed by Dr. Michael Green from the United States Studies Centre. He warns that such an action would significantly shift regional dynamics, jeopardizing the security of critical sea lanes, cornering Japan, and isolating Australia. Additionally, he highlighted the economic implications, as controlling Taiwan’s semiconductor production would give China substantial leverage over global supply chains and advancements in artificial intelligence.
Dr. Green argues that the U.S., Australia, and Japan can still deter Chinese aggression through coordinated security efforts. The recent meetings between leaders, such as Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s meeting with Pelosi, indicate a growing recognition of the stakes involved. He suggests that these nations should fortify their defense strategies, utilizing frameworks like AUKUS to enhance undersea warfare capabilities and strengthen military posture.
Taiwan, according to Dr. Green, is shifting toward a “porcupine” defense strategy, inspired by Ukraine’s asymmetric military tactics. However, successful deterrence will depend on resources and implementation. He advocates for broader international alignment with countries like India, South Korea, and NATO to impose geopolitical and economic consequences on China for any aggressive actions.
Moreover, Dr. Green encourages continued support for Taiwan’s democracy under President Tsai Ing-wen while promoting a moderate approach towards cross-strait relations. He warns against assuming that a forced unification would be straightforward for Beijing and stresses the need for resolve and focus in maintaining stability in the region.
Drawing lessons from the Ukraine conflict, he posits that Beijing may face unpredictable outcomes from aggressive actions, which could threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power. Therefore, while unification remains a goal for the CCP, Xi Jinping would be reluctant to gamble the party’s existence against an international coalition and a resilient Taiwanese defense.
This situation demands exceptional resolve and collaborative diplomacy from the U.S. and its allies more than any past security challenge since the Cold War. As tensions rise, the future roles and policies of Australia and its partners in the Indo-Pacific region will be critical in shaping the balance of power and ensuring stability amidst rising threats from Beijing.
