The pandemic and the economic shutdowns are dealing a severe blow to the global economy and especially poorer countries. Developing countries and the international community can take steps now to speed recovery after the worst of the health crisis has passed and blunt long-term adverse effects, according to the latest World Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects report.
Short-term response measures to address the health emergency and secure core public services will need to be accompanied by comprehensive policies to boost long-term growth, including by improving governance and business environments, and expanding and improving the results of investment in education and public health.
To make future economies more resilient, many countries will need systems that can build and retain more human and physical capital during the recovery, using policies that reflect and encourage the post-pandemic need for new types of jobs, businesses and governance systems.
Deep recessions associated with the pandemic will likely exacerbate the multi-decade slowdown in economic growth and productivity, the primary drivers of higher living standards and poverty reduction. Adding to the inequality problem from slow trend growth, the poor and vulnerable are among the hardest hit by the pandemic and economic shutdown, including through infection, school closures and lower remittance flows.
Measures needed to protect public health have undercut an already fragile global economy, causing deep recessions in advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) alike. EMDEs that have weak health systems; those that rely heavily on global trade, tourism, or remittances from abroad; and those that depend on commodity exports will be particularly hard-hit, the analysis notes.
In the long-term, the pandemic will leave lasting damage through multiple channels, including lower investment, erosion of physical and human capital due to closure of businesses and loss of schooling and jobs, and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages.
These effects will lower potential output – the output an economy can sustain at full employment and capacity – and labor productivity well into the future. Pre-existing vulnerabilities, fading demographic dividends, and structural bottlenecks will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic.
Policies to rebuild both in the short and long-term entail strengthening health services and putting in place very targeted stimulus measures to help reignite growth. This includes efforts to maintain the private sector and get money directly to people so that we may see a quicker return to business creation after this pandemic has passed.
During the mitigation period, countries should focus on sustaining economic activity with targeted support to provide liquidity to households, firms and government essential services. At the same time, policymakers should remain vigilant to counter potential financial disruptions.
During the recovery period, countries will need to calibrate the winding down of public support and should be targeting broader development challenges. It is important to allow an orderly allocation of new capital toward sectors that are productive in the new post-pandemic structures that emerge.
To succeed in this, countries will need reforms that allow capital and labor to adjust relatively fast by speeding the resolution of disputes, reducing regulatory barriers, and reforming the costly subsidies, monopolies and protected state-owned enterprises that have slowed development.
To make future economies more resilient, many countries will need systems that can build and retain more human and physical capital during the recovery using policies that reflect and encourage the post-pandemic need for new types of jobs, businesses and governance systems. Enhancing transparency in financial commitments and investment would also help rebuild confidence and facilitate investment growth.
Steepest drop in oil prices
Restrictions on mobility and the global recession have resulted in the steepest one-month drop in oil prices on record, in March. The predominantly demand-driven plunge in oil prices, which came on the heels of disagreements among oil producers about production targets, has been accompanied by a steep rise in global oil inventories.
In the short-term, while restrictions on transport and travel remain in place, low oil prices are unlikely to provide much support for growth and may, instead, compound the damage wrought by the pandemic by further weakening the finances of producers. Low oil prices are likely to provide at best marginal support to global activity early in the recovery.
Current low oil prices also present an opportunity to review energy pricing policies as energy-importing EMDEs need to move away from costly subsidy schemes and allocate their limited fiscal resources for higher-priority expenditures involving improvements in public health and education programs.