India’s agricultural exports have seen remarkable growth, significantly outpacing overall merchandise exports. In the first half of the fiscal year 2025–26 (April–September 2025), agricultural exports climbed by 8.8%, reaching $25.9 billion, compared to $23.8 billion in the same period of 2024. This surge contrasts sharply with the 2.9% increase in total goods exports, reflecting sustained demand and effective export strategies. In the preceding fiscal year (2024–25), agricultural exports rose by 6.4%, indicating a consistent upward trend.
Key Growth Drivers
Several factors have driven this robust performance:
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Major Agricultural Segments: Key commodities such as non-basmati rice, buffalo meat, marine products, coffee, and fruits and vegetables have propelled growth.
- Non-Basmati Rice: The lifting of export restrictions previously imposed to curb food inflation has led to a surge in exports, likely surpassing last year’s record of $6.5 billion.
- Buffalo Meat: Demand for buffalo meat has surged, with exports anticipated to exceed the decade-old record of $4.8 billion, benefiting from rising consumer needs in important markets.
- Marine Products: Despite facing U.S. tariffs, marine product exports grew by 17.4% in the first half of 2025, shifting focus to markets in China, Vietnam, Japan, and Canada.
- Coffee: Exports doubled from $739 million (2019-20) to about $1.8 billion (2024-25), driven by soaring global prices amidst dwindling coffee stocks.
- Fruits and Vegetables: Exports of both fresh and processed varieties have shown steady growth.
Global Price Influence
The fluctuating global food prices play a significant role in shaping India’s agricultural export landscape. The FAO Food Price Index has varied significantly over the past decade, impacting export values directly. Following a period of high prices, the index softened, leading to a dip in agricultural exports to $48.8 billion in 2023-24 and $52 billion in 2024-25. Restrictions on key commodities such as wheat, rice, and sugar further exacerbated these declines.
Future Outlook
The second half of the fiscal year 2025-26 will depend heavily on:
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Global Commodity Prices: The FAO index remains considerably lower than its peak in 2022. Prices for cereals and sugar have hit multi-year lows, often resulting in decreased export values for India.
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U.S. Tariffs: Ongoing tariffs have begun to impact exports significantly. For example, marine products, spices, and basmati rice face substantial taxes, which may hinder future growth.
However, there are encouraging signs of improvement. A potential trade deal between India and the U.S. is in the works, alongside tariff rollbacks on several food products, which could benefit Indian exporters.
Growing Import Challenges
In contrast to exports, India’s agricultural imports rose by 5.9% in the first half of 2025, reaching $19.5 billion, outpacing the overall import growth of 4.5%. This is primarily driven by:
- Vegetable Oils: The largest import category, which surged by 13.5%, approaching record levels.
- Pulses: After a peak in imports last year, a decline has occurred due to bumper domestic crops.
- Fresh Fruits: Imports have expanded rapidly, driven by increased demand for products such as almonds and pistachios, with the U.S. being the primary supplier.
Moreover, India has transitioned from being a net exporter to a net importer of raw cotton, with imports expected to exceed $1.5 billion due to stagnating domestic yields.
In summary, while India’s agricultural exports flourish with strong growth from key commodities amid fluctuating global prices, the dynamics of imports present challenges that require close monitoring and strategic adjustments.
