January 2026 Seems Promising
2026 has already started strongly, with January recording 16.03 million TEUs, representing a 4% increase compared with the start of 2025 and nearly 10% growth versus January 2024. With January being a 31-day month, this equates to an average of 517,236 TEUs lifted per day, an increase of 3.5% on January 2025 daily lifting figure of 499,455 TEUs.
While volumes fell 5.4% month on month, it is important to recognise that December 2025 closed as the strongest month on record. As such, even a very strong January was expected to show a slight decline compared with the record-breaking figures seen at the end of last year.
The Global Price Index starts the year at 77 points, equating to no movement month on month, but down 18% from where is sat in the same month for 2025.
Momentum Continues in Global Imports
Across global imports, 2026 has continued the momentum seen throughout 2025. All regions recorded growth compared with January 2025 except North America and South & Central America.
In percentage terms, the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa posted the strongest growth, increasing 12% and 13% respectively. This reflects the continued strength these regions demonstrated throughout 2025. Sub-Saharan Africa in particular became a focal point last year, showing significant growth despite challenging market conditions. The region’s import growth continues to be largely driven by Far East cargo, although interestingly there has been a reduction of over 10% in cargo from Europe into Africa compared with the same period in 2025.
As mentioned, South & Central America and North America were the only regions to record stagnation or decline in imports in January. South & Central America experienced a 1% year-onyear drop, while North America saw a more significant 8% decline. All exporting regions shipping into North America declined year on year, except for Sub-Saharan Africa, whose exports into the
region remained stable so far in 2026.
A ‘Mixed Bag’ for Global Exports
When compared with January 2025, regional export performance presents a more mixed picture. The Far East, Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa all recorded export growth of 6%, 10%, and 16% respectively.
Far East exports continue to be supported by increased cargo flows to nearly all regions, with the exception of North America. This trend reinforces the strong export performance the region achieved throughout 2025, particularly through Intra-Far East trade, which remains a key driver of regional growth.
Meanwhile, South & Central America has shown no year-on-year export growth so far in 2026. The region’s trade pattern currently reflects a mixed dynamic among destination markets:
exports to North America have declined, while Europe has increased its intake, offsetting the difference and leaving the region’s export total broadly unchanged. How this balance evolves as the year progresses will be an interesting trend to monitor.
Too Early to ‘Set Sail’ on Outlooks
It is still far too early to determine how emerging geopolitical developments may ultimately impact the industry. However, January 2026 has begun from a stronger position than the start of
2025, offering a positive early signal for the year ahead.
As is typical, a drop in volumes is expected as we move into February, driven by the impact of Golden Week and the shorter 28-day month. In 2025, volumes fell by over 13% from January to
February. It will therefore be particularly interesting to see whether February 2026 brings an even sharper decline, given the external changes affecting the market and the stronger starting
position seen in January this year.
