The political dynamics in the South China Sea (SCS) have highlighted the inadequacy of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) in addressing significant geopolitical changes. Amid ongoing territorial disputes, particularly between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal, ASEAN has remained largely silent, raising concerns about its effectiveness in fulfilling the goals outlined in the ASEAN Community Vision 2025. This vision emphasizes political security, aiming for cooperation among member states to ensure peace and stability in the region.
The tensions have escalated as both the Philippines and China adopt more aggressive postures; Manila has strengthened its alliance with the United States, Japan, and Australia, conducting joint military exercises in the contested waters. Concurrently, China has increased its military presence through patrols in the same area. Such developments signal a near-war environment, which ASEAN’s inaction fails to address.
US President Joe Biden has publicly reaffirmed support for the Philippines, emphasizing that an attack on its military would invoke mutual defense commitments. This military backing stands in stark contrast to ASEAN’s passive stance, which has failed to vocalize any unified response either to the maritime conflict or to its own long-standing weaknesses, such as the unresolved civil war in Myanmar. While ASEAN did attempt mediation in Myanmar, it has not shown similar resolve or capability regarding the China-Philippines maritime disputes.
Member states within ASEAN are divided, with each pursuing distinct national interests in an increasingly polarized geopolitical landscape dominated by the US and China. Some countries are aligning with one superpower, while others strive for neutrality. The territorial disputes are not isolated to the Philippines; other Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia are also affected, indicating a collective anxiety regarding Chinese assertiveness in the SCS.
Amidst this uncertainty, Indonesia, as a prominent ASEAN member, is seen as a potential mediator. The country’s status as the largest Southeast Asian nation and a rising middle power bestows upon it a measure of expectation and responsibility. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi previously stated that “to do nothing is not an option,” calling for active diplomacy to resolve conflicts. This ethos could be beneficial in addressing the tensions surrounding the SCS.
While ASEAN’s collective effectiveness in peacekeeping may seem compromised, Indonesia’s role could provide a pathway for engagement and conflict resolution, transcending the limitations of the regional bloc. The current geopolitical climate necessitates greater involvement, and Indonesia’s position as a nonaligned state in the US-China rivalry offers a unique opportunity to foster dialogue and potentially mitigate rising tensions in the South China Sea.
