In an interview with Radio Free Asia, Raymond Powell, a retired U.S. Air Force veteran and director of Project Myoushu at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, discusses China’s “gray zone tactics” in the South China Sea. These tactics allow the Chinese government to assert its claims without direct attribution or accountability, making it hard for other nations to respond effectively. Powell emphasizes that gray zone activities include harassment of neighboring countries and aggressive patrolling, which can easily go unnoticed.
The South China Sea has been a focal point for gray zone tactics, escalating notably since the 2012 Scarborough Shoal Incident, which marked a shift in China’s assertiveness. Previously, conflicts revolved around territorial “features” like reefs or islands, but now, with China’s extensive island-building initiatives and the deployment of military forces, the focus has shifted to asserting control over the waters themselves. Powell notes that China’s actions serve to normalize its claims and diminish the sovereignty of neighboring nations, a strategy he refers to as “salami slicing.”
He highlights recent near-collisions between Chinese and U.S. naval ships, noting that the Philippines has begun exposing these incidents through media releases, a tactic aimed at increasing accountability for China’s actions. Publicizing gray zone activity can deter further aggression by giving it a global spotlight and imposing reputational costs on China.
Powell asserts that while freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) conducted by the U.S. challenge excessive Chinese claims, other nations like Australia typically do not engage as aggressively due to fears of escalation with China. He argues this hesitance allows China to successfully enforce a “12 nautical mile circle” around its claims, further solidifying its influence in the region.
Looking towards the future, Powell warns that if China continues its patrols and aggressive posturing, it could effectively claim dominance over the South China Sea by 2030. However, he also points out potential flashpoints—such as the Philippines’ dwindling natural gas supplies and the deteriorating condition of a Philippine naval outpost—that could provoke conflict.
Ultimately, Powell believes that while there are two likely scenarios—China asserting control or conflict with the U.S.—a third possibility exists: a strategic recalibration by China in the face of sustained pushback from neighboring countries. He advocates for the importance of transparency and resilience among Southeast Asian nations in confronting gray zone tactics, as it forces China to reconsider its approach. The aim is to establish a long-term strategy that discourages constant tension and leads to a more stable equilibrium in the region without conceding sovereignty.
