The latest DHL Air Freight Market Update Report (January 2026) and Ocean Freight Market Update Report (February 2026) reveal a market where the familiar Lunar New Year (LNY) surge is colliding with weather-driven disruptions, congestion, and structural capacity constraints. Read the full analysis on DHL’s Logistics of Things here.
Below are highlights of the latest reports:
- “We are entering a season that feels less like a predictable peak and more like a pressure test for supply chains worldwide,” said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
- In the lead-up to LNY, both ocean and air freight markets feel the full weight of Asia Pacific’s central role in global trade as demand surges and capacity tightens in an environment marked by geopolitical unrest, weather‑driven disruptions, and structural constraints.
- The LNY effect amplifies pre-existing surges in demand and volumes, as shippers rush to move goods before factory closures. Ex‑Asia airfreight volumes had already surged 10 percent year‑on‑year in December 2025, while DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Update indicated 5 percent year‑to‑date demand growth through November 2025, driven almost entirely by Asia‑origin trades into non-U.S. markets.
- Yet, this year’s surge is met with an already strained system. Nominal capacity for ocean freight is projected to grow just 3 percent in 2026, half of the typical average seen over the past decade. Suez diversions, port congestion, and weather disruptions had also added pressure to constrained effective capacity, as usable supply is reduced by around 15 percent.
- “The result of these market forces is that capacity looks sufficient on paper, but is significantly less reliable in practice,” noted Bjoern Schoon, Senior Vice President, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
- The airfreight market is facing similar headwinds. While airfreight capacity grew 5 percent year‑on‑year in January 2026, supported by a mix of freighter expansions and passenger belly recovery, it was insufficient to fully offset seasonal tightening while structural shortages continue to loom into 2027–2028.
- Meanwhile, schedule reliability gains from early 2025 faded as winter approached. Ocean freight reliability stalled across nearly all trade lanes, while similar pressures hit air networks.
- On rates, ocean rates followed the classic LNY trajectory but with a twist, rising 18 percent off Q3 lows but remained 36 percent below year‑ago levels. This duality speaks to a market where seasonal momentum is meeting a softer environment.
- Airfreight also saw its own rebound, as global rates rose +1 percent week‑on‑week in week 3 of 2026, driven by a +4 percent week-on-week jump in Asia Pacific origins, even as Asia–Europe spot rates dipped – 3 percent week-on-week. Spot rates between Asia Pacific and U.S. saw a 3 percent increase, showing a divergence between the trade lanes for the two continents.
- Both ocean and air freight markets in Asia Pacific are entering 2026 with resilience – but also with vulnerabilities. LNY intensifies these dynamics, revealing a market where small shocks quickly cascade through tightly interlinked global networks. For shippers, the message is clear: the old playbook is no longer enough. In today’s environment of geopolitical uncertainty, weather disruption, and shifting demand patterns, proactive planning, diversified routings, and flexible modal strategies are essential.
The DHL Air Freight and Ocean Freight Market Update Reports are monthly reports by DHL Global Forwarding that track and analyze the latest developments in the global air and ocean freight market.
DHL – The logistics company for the world
DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging from national and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillment solutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial supply chain management. With approximately 400,000 employees in more than 220 countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses securely and reliably, enabling global sustainable trade flows. With specialized solutions for growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and healthcare, engineering, manufacturing & energy, auto-mobility and retail, DHL is decisively positioned as “The logistics company for the world”.
DHL is part of DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of approximately 84.2 billion euros in 2024. With sustainable business practices and a commitment to society and the environment, the Group makes a positive contribution to the world. DHL Group aims to achieve net-zero emissions logistics by 2050.
