Tunisia has witnessed a significant decline in democratic governance since the last electoral cycle, paralleling military coups in West Africa. The decline began with President Kaïs Saïed’s dissolution of Parliament in 2021, a move considered an “auto-coup,” where an elected leader dismantles democratic institutions. Saïed had campaigned in 2019 as a political outsider and, upon being elected, faced a parliament dominated by opposition parties, particularly Ennahda, which had played a vital role in Tunisia’s post-revolution reforms since the ousting of former dictator Zine el Abidine Ben Ali in 2011.
Tunisia’s 2014 Constitution established a semi-presidential system, but Saïed declared an emergency on July 25, 2021, suspended Parliament, dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, and began ruling by decree. In October 2021, he appointed a new Prime Minister, Najla Bouden, who had no parliamentary approval. Saïed’s tenure has been marked by an ongoing assault on Tunisia’s democratic institutions, aimed at consolidating his power. He bypassed the legal framework, suspending the Constitution in September 2021, and ushered in a new constitution in 2022 that transformed the system to a unitary presidential model, effectively undermining the checks and balances established post-Ben Ali.
After Saïed dissolved Parliament, opposition parties, which viewed his actions as illegal, boycotted a constitutional referendum that had a mere 31% turnout. His next moves included dismantling key institutions such as the Supreme Judicial Council and replacing it with an appointed body, alongside issuing decrees to control judicial appointments. Furthermore, Saïed imposed restrictions on civil society and the media, labeling dissenters as threats to national security. This political environment has led to arrests, including that of Rached Ghannouchi, the 81-year-old leader of Ennahda, reflecting a broader crackdown on opposition.
As Tunisia approaches the 2024 elections, Saïed has further limited political competition, approving only two opposition candidates—one of whom is aligned with him. His government has attempted to stifle dissent through a campaign of intimidation and arrests, including international warrants against political opponents in exile. The parliamentary system has been effectively turned into a rubber-stamp institution for Saïed’s agenda.
The regional implications of Tunisia’s political fate are stark, as it was once seen as a model for democratic progress in North Africa. Saïed has garnered support from Russian and Gulf State interests, and his governance style invokes concerns about a broader deterioration of democratic norms across the continent.
Despite Saïed’s repressive tactics, opposition movements and civil society continue to organize against his regime, calling for the release of political prisoners and advocating for democratic rights amidst a backdrop of economic hardship, marked by stagnant growth, high unemployment, and inflation. The looming economic crisis, coupled with a crackdown on dissent, underscores the fragility of Tunisia’s democratic evolution and highlights the need for robust democratic institutions capable of withstanding authoritarian impulses.
This political landscape serves as a cautionary tale for other nations and international partners, emphasizing that legitimacy and democratic progression require constant vigilance, compromise, and institutional resilience against the ambitions of those in power.
