Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken a firm stance regarding tensions in the South China Sea, particularly following a recent incident at the Second Thomas Shoal involving Chinese and Philippine naval forces. His military chief, Gen. Romeo Brawner, has called for US$1 million in compensation from China for damage to vessels engaged in a resupply mission. In response, Beijing insisted that the Philippines should account for its actions, reflecting escalating tensions between the two nations.
Just days after the Second Thomas Shoal incident, a new bilateral negotiation occurred between Manila and Beijing, wherein Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong and Philippine counterpart Theresa Lazaro emphasized the importance of restoring trust and confidence between their countries. This meeting followed a series of confrontations at sea, marking a significant moment in diplomatic relations.
Unlike his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who leaned towards economic engagement with Beijing while maintaining territorial claims, Marcos has asserted the Philippines’ right to defend its territory and seek international assistance. This shift is critical in the wake of increased Chinese assertiveness, highlighted by an incident on July 2 where Chinese coast guard personnel boarded Philippine Navy vessels, seizing firearms amid controversies over a new Chinese rule empowering its coast guard to detain foreigners in claimed waters.
China’s display of military strength has been criticized as unnecessary by observers who argue that such actions undermine China’s image globally, particularly at a time when constructive dialogue is essential for peace in the South China Sea. The ongoing tension can largely be traced back to the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favor of the Philippines, essentially rejecting China’s extensive territorial claims in the region—claims that China has refused to recognize.
Other nations in ASEAN, including Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam, share interests in the South China Sea but tend to avoid direct conflicts with China. In contrast, the Philippines has sought closer military alignment with the United States as a counterbalance to Chinese influence. Manila has expressed disappointment with ASEAN’s lack of unity in confronting Chinese assertiveness and is moving towards military cooperation agreements with both the US and Japan.
While ASEAN nations advocate for the Philippines to manage its disputes independently, the potential for regional instability remains a concern given the South China Sea’s strategic significance. Indonesia, though not a claimant to the disputed waters, has its own tensions with China regarding its exclusive economic zone. The leadership in Indonesia, including President Joko Widodo and President-elect Prabowo Subianto, is committed to safeguarding its maritime territory.
Ultimately, unless there is genuine commitment from both China and ASEAN to develop a comprehensive Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, tensions and conflicts are likely to persist, affecting not only the claimant states but the broader region and global community.
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