On October 30, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Gimhae Air Base in Busan, South Korea, to discuss trade relations. Despite Trump’s announcement of a new trade truce, U.S. shippers and logistics managers expressed skepticism about the agreement’s potential to resolve ongoing trade disputes. Many believe the deal largely consists of rhetoric and fails to fundamentally address the significant tariff disagreements between the two nations.
Following Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on Chinese imports in April, American shippers have faced a bleak business outlook. The recent announcement included a cut in tariffs by 10 percentage points; however, the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports remains notably high—around 47%. This cumulative risk associated with tariffs is putting pressure on import volume, increasing uncertainty in the logistics sector.
Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, highlighted that discussions with clients now heavily focus on risk management involving inventory levels and navigating tariff variability. He indicated that this uncertainty would likely dominate conversations leading into the first half of 2026.
Data from U.S. Customs reflected the negative impact of tariffs on trade volumes, particularly in specific sectors. For example, apparel imports saw a drastic decline, with woven apparel down over 50% and knitted apparel down by more than 40%. Additionally, the furniture and toy sectors reported significant drops in volume, ranging from 20% to 25%. Year-to-date shipping statistics reveal a decline of 700,000 containers coming from China compared to the same period in 2024, with 247,000 containers currently en route to the U.S., about 50,000 fewer than last year.
This reduction in container volumes translates to lower profits for trucking companies, warehousing firms, and railroads, visually reflecting a potential recession in the freight industry, as indicated by the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI). The LMI tracks various economic factors and has recently shown patterns that may suggest an impending downturn.
Jon Gold, of the National Retail Federation, recognized that while the reduction in fentanyl tariffs—down from 20% to 10%—provides some relief, the elevated tariff rates still exert a harmful economic impact. He urged the administration to pursue further negotiations to eliminate these tariffs entirely.
In summary, while President Trump’s truce with President Xi may offer a glimmer of hope for relief in trade tensions, the prevailing high tariff rates and continued uncertainties greatly overshadow any optimistic outlook among American shippers and logistics managers. The fear of a freight recession looms large as shipping volumes plummet, impacting various sectors and stakeholders across the logistics chain.
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