Blank sailings have long been part of the shipping cycle. Recent data suggests the scale and frequency of disruption are entering a new phase.
Drewry reports a 122 per cent month-on-month increase in blank sailings across major East-West trades this month alone, effectively a doubling in withdrawn capacity compared with the previous period.
While short-term fluctuations are not unusual around seasonal events such as the Lunar New Year, underlying drivers of this spike point to something more structural.
Trade volatility is being shaped simultaneously by geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff disputes between the United States and China, inflationary pressures suppressing consumer demand, and broader uncertainty around energy transition pathways.
Combined, each of these factors makes demand forecasting more complex, creating a planning environment where traditional scheduling assumptions are increasingly fragile.
For ports, terminals, and hinterland operators, the central issue is not merely capacity reduction, but variability.
As Sjoerd de Jager, Managing Director and Co-Founder of PortXchange, observes: “Schedule information is the backbone of efficient port calls. But in volatile conditions, static ETAs become outdated almost immediately. If the industry wants to reduce waste, it needs to move from static planning to predictive, continuously updated coordination.”
Even when overall capacity remains relatively stable, frequent adjustments to sailing schedules create cascading operational effects. A cancelled sailing compromises berth windows. A delayed arrival disrupts yard planning. Inland barge and rail connections fall out of sequence. The result is idle assets, compressed peaks, underutilized labour, and avoidable emissions.
In this context, predictability becomes more valuable than volume.
Historically, estimated times of arrival have been treated as fixed reference points. In practice, they are often calculated once and adjusted, if at all, manually. This approach struggles to reflect real-world conditions such as port congestion, lock restrictions, weather systems, water levels, or network knock-on effects.
As schedule variance compounds across the supply chain, inefficiencies multiply. Waiting times increase. Fuel consumption rises, and emissions follow.
The spike in blank sailings is a reminder that volatility is no longer an exception to the rule. It has become a structural feature of the market.
In such an environment, reactive communication is insufficient. What is required is predictive schedule intelligence systems capable of continuously recalculating arrival times using live vessel data and network-wide inputs.
Across parts of the inland and barge sector, this shift is already underway. Predictive ETA engines are being deployed that analyze vessel movements alongside operational constraints to provide dynamically updated arrival forecasts. Rather than relying on static schedules, operators receive automated ETA updates via API integration into their existing planning systems.
In collaboration with a major inland operator, PortXchange developed ETAPredictor, a custom-made, AI-based, predictive ETA solution. Addressing low utilization and high idle times, the program has demonstrated measurable results. By recalculating ETAs in real time – using vessel-level and network historical data – the system reduced ETA prediction error by more than 50 per cent within six months of deployment.
In practice, this translated into improved asset utilisation, fewer idle towboats, and more stable workforce planning.
As blank sailings and schedule volatility ripple through maritime networks, the ability to absorb disruption depends increasingly on how quickly arrival forecasts can adapt to changing conditions. Accurate, continuously updated ETAs allow berth windows, labour allocation, and hinterland connections to be adjusted proactively rather than reactively.
Periods of disruption tend to expose weaknesses in legacy processes. Organisations relying on static schedules and manual coordination will continue to absorb the cost of unpredictability by utilizing (physical) buffers like warehouses and yard space. Those investing in predictive, data-driven coordination are better positioned to stabilise performance despite external turbulence.
Shipping has always operated within cycles. What appears to be changing is the baseline level of uncertainty. In that environment, predictability is no longer a marginal operational improvement, but a tactical differentiator.
As de Jager concludes: We cannot control blank sailings or geopolitical volatility. But we can control how intelligently we plan around them. The choice is simple: absorb disruption or anticipate it. In today’s environment, resilience means anticipating volatility in supply chains and predictive coordination tools are becoming a critical success factor.”
About PortXchange
PortXchange is a Rotterdam-based maritime technology company accelerating port decarbonization through data-driven action.
Its flagship product, EmissionInsider, enables ports to monitor, analyze, and reduce Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions in real time, providing full visibility across ship, truck, rail, and terminal activity. The platform includes a standalone Port Emissions Reporter, designed to turn complex emissions data into strategic, regulatory-ready insights.
PortXchange also offers Synchronizer, a collaborative planning tool that helps reduce vessel idle time and optimize port calls through a Just-in-Time (JIT) smart system that facilitates coordination between ships, terminals, and service providers.
As a B Corp-certified company, PortXchange is committed to partnering with forward-thinking ports and maritime companies to replace data paralysis with emissions accountability, proving that climate action starts with operational decisions.
About ETAPredictor
The ETAPredictor is a real-time predictive engine that continuously recalculates ETAs as conditions change, to give the most accurate and real-time information to barge operations. Using the ETAPredictor, operators can rely on automatically updated location and arrival information – instead of static estimates – enabling operations and cargo owners to plan with confidence.
Learn more at: www.port-xchange.com
