Most Indonesians regard China’s presence in the South China Sea as a “threat” and are in favor of forming an alliance with other Southeast Asian nations to protect the country’s sovereignty, a survey released on March 19 has shown. The result of this survey conducted by the Indonesia Strategic and Defense Studies (ISDS) aligned with the thinking of the country’s top military and diplomatic officials expressed during a seminar held in conjunction with the publication of the survey results.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, dismissing rival claims from other countries including the Philippines and rejecting a 2016 international ruling that stated the Chinese claim has no legal basis. The Chinese Communist Party CCP has militarized the Paracel and Spratly Islands by building military outposts and airstrips. Chinese coast guard and militia fishing fleets have swarmed these waters and there were frequent clashes with Philippine fishing and supply boats in recent months.

Although Indonesia is not a claimant in the South China Sea, its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the North Natuna Sea falls within China’s so-called nine-dash line, which Beijing uses to claim around 90 percent of the disputed waters.

ISDS polled 312 people in five major cities on the South China Sea territorial dispute, especially about their opinions onIndonesia’s sovereignty in the North Natuna Sea. The survey’s results found that more than 73 per cent of respondents saw China’s presence in the South China Sea as a threat to Indonesia.

Stand-offs between China and Indonesia have flared up in the contested waters a number of times in recent years, including in December 2022, when China sent Coast Guard 5901, the world’s largest coast guard vessel, to patrol the North Natuna Sea.

“In 2023, China again unilaterally issued a new map, adding one-dash line (to the standard nine-dash line map), so its 10-dash lines claim the entire South China Sea region. In some parts, the dotted lines overlap with our EEZ in the North Natuna Sea,” Hadi Tjahjanto, Indonesia’s minister for political, legal and security affairs, said during the seminar.

“This caused strong protests from all countries, including Indonesia. We object because the map does not comply with the 1982 UNCLOS,” he added, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which regulates all uses of the ocean and its resources as well as disputes among signatory nations.

“Instability in the South China Sea will have a global impact and become … a threat to our national interests.” 

16.7 percent of the survey’s respondent said Indonesia should work with the U.S. to develop the domestic defense industry. 39.1 percent said Indonesia should team up with other ASEAN countries – namely Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines – to bolster sovereignty in the South China Sea. Nearly half (47 percent) agreed that Indonesia should establish a defensive alliance with them.

“Realistically, a defensive alliance could be the answer, but we understand that there is a national doctrine that says that Indonesia will never form a defensive alliance,” said Agus Widjojo, Indonesia’s ambassador to the Philippines.

Agus agreed with the idea of relying on ASEAN to solve the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, but said Indonesia should also strengthen diplomatic efforts to fortify its position in the North Natuna Sea. He noted that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has been successful during overseas trips seeking allies for his country’s efforts to counter Chinese influence in the South China Sea.

“Many countries support Philippine sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea,” the ambassador said. “From these trips, [Marcos Jnr] also received a lot of military assistance and investment. This is the area that we should strengthen, too.”

According to Irvansyah, head of Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla), most of the foreign vessels that traverse Indonesia’s EEZ in the North Natuna Sea are civilian ones, “so we don’t necessarily have to deploy the navy first in dealing with these vessels”.

“In several countries that I visited, such as Vietnam, the Philippines (and) Malaysia, we are of the view that tensions tend to rise in the South China Sea if the military is involved,” Irvansyah said during the seminar. “Fellow coastguards in ASEAN feel that our cooperation needs to be strengthened.”

Irvansyah said Bakamla initiated the establishment of the ASEAN Coast Guard Forum last year to facilitate communication among the region’s maritime security forces. The Philippines will take over the forum’s chairmanship from Indonesia in June in Davao.

“But the final solution, to make life peaceful in the North Natuna Sea, is to strengthen the Indonesian military, so it’s stronger than China’s,” he added.

ISDS co-founder Erik Purnama Putra said Indonesia was “not ready” for conflict in the South China Sea.

“Our budget for the defense sector is really small, only 0.8 percent of GDP in the past 20 years. We need to collaborate with ASEAN countries to prevent conflict from happening in the region,” he said during the seminar.

Besides increasing the budget to revamp maritime security, Erik also urged officials to continue with the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise, a joint military exercise for ASEAN states that Indonesia hosted for the first time in September 2023.

During the 2024 Indonesian presidential election in February, the South China Sea situation featured as a key foreign policy topic among presidential candidates. 

During the January presidential debate, questions about the South China Sea were posed to the candidates, Ganjar Pranowo, former governor of Central Java; Prabowo Subianto, former minister of defense who won the presidential election; and Anies Baswedan, former governor of Jakarta.

Ganjar maintained that Indonesia is not a claimant in the dispute, contending that Indonesia has abundant potential to play a role in managing the conflict. He specifically pointed out that in the past 20 years, there has been little progress on the dispute. Nevertheless, he said it is important to ensure Indonesia’s sovereign mining rights in the North Natuna Sea. In the past few years, there has been friction with China regarding Indonesia’s Tuna Bloc exploration, which China argued falls within its nine dash-line.

Prabowo highlighted that Indonesia should build a strong maritime defense capacity so that it can defend itself in the North Natuna Sea. On the other hand, Anies argued that Indonesia should use the ASEAN alliance to deal with the dispute, noting that ASEAN needs to have a solid and unifying position in addressing the issue. 

In January, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said Indonesia is ready to work with other Southeast Asian nations to finalize a long-delayed code of conduct for the South China Sea, where many of its neighbors have competing claims with China.

“On the South China Sea, Indonesia is ready to work together with all ASEAN member states including the Philippines to finalize the Code of Conduct as soon as possible,” Retno said at a joint press conference with Filipino counterpart Enrique Manalo in Manila.

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